MORE GRAY HAIR FOR THE DEMS – AT 8:49 A.M. ET:  Andrew Malcolm of the L.A. Times's Top of the Ticket blog, brings more worry to the Democratic Party, as he reports Stu Rothenberg's assessment of Dem prospects this November:

In a new report to be issued this morning, the respected nonpartisan political prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg will predict "inevitable" Republican gains of House seats this November, likely in excess of two dozen and possibly even above the 40 necessary to turn control of that body over to the GOP.

From his mouth to you know whose ears.

"Substantial Republican gains are inevitable," Rothenberg writes, "with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible."

Such a long list of losses would be far beyond the historical average of 16 turnovers in the first midterm election of a new president like Barack Obama. In the first midterm election of Bill Clinton's presidency in 1994, Republicans seized control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years and held them for 12 years, even through the first midterm elections of George W. Bush's presidency.

The 28 weeks until Nov. 2 is a very long time in American politics. But at the moment a decisive victory seems the Republicans' to lose.

COMMENT:  Not to throw a damper on the celebration, but I'll have a piece at The Angel's Corner tonight outlining the things that can go wrong with this scenario, and why we must work to prevent them.  It never hurts to be prepared, as the Boy Scouts know.

We hope for an enormous victory.  But the election isn't being held today, and the other side has no history of playing dead, which is a Republican specialty.

April 16, 2010